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S&P 500: A Big Drop In Slow Motion (Technical Analysis)

Seeking Alpha
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⚡ Quantum Brief
The S&P 500 closed at its 2026 low on March 2026, dropping below 6,764 due to rising oil, higher yields, weak jobs data, and escalating Iran tensions, signaling a potential slow decline toward 6,500. Technical analysis shows a pattern of lower highs and lows, suggesting a gradual downturn rather than a sharp crash, despite relentless negative news flow. Short-term rallies may occur but are expected to cap below 6,850–6,901, limiting upside potential amid persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures. Analyst Andrew McElroy’s proprietary system—combining fractals, Elliott Wave, and DeMark signals—forecasts continued weakness, with key resistance levels defining near-term market behavior. McElroy holds a long position in VOO but warns of further downside, emphasizing systematic risk over individual stock performance in the current volatile environment.
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Andrew McElroy17.58K FollowersFollow5ShareSavePlay(7min)Comment(1)SummaryThe S&P 500 is making lower lows and lower highs, but it's a slow grind lower rather than a collapse, even when the news flow is overwhelmingly negative.Last week's close below 6764 could signal a path towards 6500ish over the next weeks.There is the potential for some positive news, but rallies are likely to stay below 6850-6901. asbe/iStock via Getty Images A barrage of bad news led to the S&P 500's (SPY) lowest close of 2026 on Friday. Higher oil, higher yields, a negative NFP, and the prospect of a long battle with Iran all weighed.This article was written byAndrew McElroy17.58K FollowersFollowAndrew McElroy is Chief Analyst at Matrixtrade, author of the ebook 'Fractal Market Mastery' and producer of the 'Daily Edge.' The 'Daily Edge' is emailed before each US session and outlines actionable ideas, directional bias, and important levels in the S&P500. It also looks at 'What's Hot,' on any particular day, whether it is commodities, stocks, crypto, or forex. Andrew has developed a top-down proprietary system that starts with his weekend Seeking Alpha article focusing on the higher timeframes. Fractals, Elliott Wave, and Demark exhaustion signals are all incorporated, as are macro drivers and analysis of the market narrative. It is much more than just a few lines on a chart - it is a system developed over 15 years and proven to deliver a consistent edge. An independent trader since 2009, Andrew manages a family portfolio of stocks and ETFs with his wife and fellow Seeking Alpha contributor Macrogirl.Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of VOO either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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